Bitcoin’s Eerie Silence: Calm Before the Storm or New Stable Era?
Bitcoin fell to a monthly low of $65,000 on June 14 and is currently down around 5% since the same time last week. However, zooming out to view the bigger picture shows that the asset is still consolidating where it has been since early March.
“Bitcoin very rarely goes this quiet,” commented analyst James Check in a post on X on June 14. The 30-day price range is separated by just 8.3%, he added before stating:
“There are two outcomes: 1) Bitcoin remains a stablecoin for a new paradigm. 2) Volatility is just over the horizon.”
#Bitcoin very rarely goes this quiet.
The 30-day price range is separated by just 8.3%.
There are two outcomes:
1) Bitcoin remains a stablecoin for a new paradigm
2) Volatility is just over the horizon. pic.twitter.com/aNl3WlkZky— _Checkmate
(@_Checkmatey_) June 14, 2024
Bitcoin Still Sideways
Moreover, the Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio, a metric used to navigate volatility, is currently low, suggesting that most profit and loss have already been realized. This implies that the market needs to move in order to motivate the next round of spending, the analyst said.
Additionally, the ‘Choppiness Index,’ which acts as a fuel gauge for BTC, indicates that the market is ready to trend on a weekly timeframe but still needs rest on a monthly basis.
“My assessment is that the market is ready to move in the short term (volatility), but not necessarily in the longer term (trend continuation).”
The base case for Bitcoin remains ‘chop-solidation’ characterized by small pumps and dumps that shake out impatient holders, the analyst concluded.
“The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to break out is beneficial for the overall cycle,” commented fellow analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ who also observed the lengthy period of range-bound trading.
He added that this continued consolidation is enabling the price to resynchronize with historical halving cycles “so that we can get a normal, usual bull run.”
“History suggests this consolidation could go on for another 3 months.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoiner Samson Mow said that “the BTC coil is super compressed now,” predicting that a huge candle is coming.
Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente compared the consolidation period with a similar market phase last year.
Would be hilarious if BTC did the same summer consolidation fractal again pic.twitter.com/SSbIwWB3UA
— Will (@WClementeIII) June 14, 2024
Where to Next?
On June 14, market analyst Jacob Canfield identified two potential scenarios. BTC could sweep low to around $66,000 – where it is currently trading – before a “strong reaction bounce” to head back toward $70,000.
Or there could be a “deep capitulation wick” down to $60,000 to $62,000, he said. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $66,200, following a 1.2% decline on the day.
It is now 10% down from its mid-March all-time high but remains range-bound with a lower boundary just below $60,000, where it dipped in early May.
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